Italy vs Türkiye Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA Nations League · League A - 4 · Mon, 5 Oct 2026

UEFA Nations League

Italy

18:45

5 Oct

Türkiye

PredictionOddsConfidence

Home Win1.4280%

Italy rate 80% on combined form and matchup strength.

Also rated:Home or Away (12) @ 1.17Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50Both Teams to Score @ 1.67

Italy: Matches Played 10

WWLWD

W6 Wins

in last 10 games

L2 Losses

in last 10 games

D2 Draws

in last 10 games

Türkiye: Matches Played 10

LWLLL

W5 Wins

in last 10 games

L5 Losses

in last 10 games

D0 Draws

in last 10 games

HomeDrawAway

50%

1.38

50%

5.25

7.00

Teams Head to Head Matches

H2H

28 September 2026 • UEFA Nations League
WTürkiye1 4Italy
4 June 2024 • Friendlies
DItaly0 0Türkiye
29 March 2022 • Friendlies
WTürkiye2 3Italy
11 June 2021 • Euro Championship
WTürkiye0 3Italy

Last Matches (Italy)

2 October 2026 • UEFA Nations League
DFrance1 1Italy
28 September 2026 • UEFA Nations League
WTürkiye1 4Italy
25 September 2026 • UEFA Nations League
LItaly0 2Belgium
7 June 2026 • Friendlies
WGreece0 1Italy
3 June 2026 • Friendlies
WLuxembourg0 1Italy
31 March 2026 • World Cup - Qualification Europe
DBosnia & Herzegovina1 1Italy
26 March 2026 • World Cup - Qualification Europe
WItaly2 0Northern Ireland
16 November 2025 • World Cup - Qualification Europe
LItaly1 4Norway
13 November 2025 • World Cup - Qualification Europe
WMoldova0 2Italy
14 October 2025 • World Cup - Qualification Europe
WItaly3 0Israel

Last Matches (Türkiye)

2 October 2026 • UEFA Nations League
LBelgium3 0Türkiye
28 September 2026 • UEFA Nations League
LTürkiye1 4Italy
25 September 2026 • UEFA Nations League
LTürkiye0 1France
26 June 2026 • World Cup
WTürkiye3 2USA
20 June 2026 • World Cup
LTürkiye0 1Paraguay
14 June 2026 • World Cup
LAustralia2 0Türkiye
6 June 2026 • Friendlies
WVenezuela1 2Türkiye
1 June 2026 • Friendlies
WTürkiye4 0FYR Macedonia
31 March 2026 • World Cup - Qualification Europe
WKosovo0 1Türkiye
26 March 2026 • World Cup - Qualification Europe
WTürkiye1 0Romania

League Table

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	G	GD	P	Form
1	France	4	3	1	0	7-2	5	10	WDWW
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	8-5	3	7	WDWL
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	6-5	1	6	LWLW
4	Türkiye	4	0	0	4	2-11	-9	0	LLLL

Top Scorers Table

Player NamesMatchesGoals

Lamine YamalSpain34

L. WaltaFinland34

H. KaneEngland34

T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland44

O. ÓskarssonIceland33

Gonçalo RamosPortugal43

João FélixPortugal43

A. GordonEngland33

Z. AmdouniSwitzerland33

E. HaalandNorway43

Betting Markets & Predictions

Model expected goals: 3

Over / UnderBTTSDouble ChanceCorrect ScoreHT / FTAsian HandicapCornersCardsAnytime Scorer

LineOverUnder

0.5 goals95%5%

1.5 goals80.1%19.9%

2.5 goals57.7%42.3%

3.5 goals35.3%64.7%

Model estimate from each team's season scoring and conceding rates.

Yes

49%

51%

87.8%

81.6%

30.7%

2-0

12%

1-0

11%

2-1

9.6%

3-0

8.8%

1-1

8.8%

3-1

7.1%

0-0

4-0

4.9%

1 / 1

46.3%

1 / X

3.7%

1 / 2

0.8%

X / 1

20%

X / X

11.1%

X / 2

4.9%

2 / 1

2 / X

3.7%

2 / 2

6.5%

Home -1.75

41%

odds 2.30

Away +1.75

59%

odds 1.60

Home -1.5

47%

odds 2.02

Away +1.5

53%

odds 1.78

Home -1.25

53%

odds 1.82

Away +1.25

47%

odds 2.02

Implied from bookmaker odds, margin removed.

Over 9.5

53%

odds 1.80

Under 9.5

47%

odds 2.00

Total corners over/under.

Over 3.5

58%

odds 1.62

Under 3.5

42%

odds 2.20

Total cards over/under.

Moise Kean1.9551%
Gianluca Scamacca1.9551%
Pio Esposito2.0050%
Sebastiano Esposito2.2045%
Mohamed Ali Zoma2.3043%

Implied chance of scoring at any point, from the odds.

Model Comparison

Predicted winner: Italy

Our pick: Home Win at 1.42

Expected goals: 3

Source: Our published prediction

Recent form100% / 0%

Attack83% / 17%

Defence67% / 33%

Goals model0% / 0%

Head-to-head91% / 9%

Overall80% / 21%

Recent Goal Lines

Hit-rate over each team's last 6 matches.

Over 1.5

Italy4/6

Türkiye4/6

Over 2.5

Italy1/6

Türkiye3/6

Over 3.5

Italy1/6

Türkiye2/6

BTTS (Yes)

Italy3/6

Türkiye2/6

Goals By Time Period

ScoredConceded

Italy

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Türkiye

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Italy

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Türkiye

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Average Event Minute

Italy

First goal scored: 32′First goal conceded: 50′First card: 49′

Türkiye

First goal scored: 29′First goal conceded: 18′First card: 59′

Season Statistics

	Italy	Türkiye
Form	LWD	LLL
Played	3	3
Wins	1	0
Draws	1	0
Losses	1	3
Goals for (avg)	1.7	0.3
Goals against (avg)	1.3	2.7
Clean sheets	0	0
Failed to score	1	2
Biggest win streak	1	0

Shots & Passes

Per-game averages over the last 6 matches.

Italy

Total shots13.8

Blocked3.8

58% off target42% on target

72% inside box28% outside box

Total passes449.8

Accurate passes379 (84%)

Possession44%

Türkiye

Total shots20.2

Blocked6.7

63% off target37% on target

53% inside box47% outside box

Total passes524.2

Accurate passes444.8 (85%)

Possession56%

Trends

4 match streak · UEFA Nations League

Italy have conceded in each of their last 4 matches in UEFA Nations League.

Upcoming Fixtures Difficulty

Italy

H · 5 Oct

Türkiye

2/5

H · 12 Nov

France

5/5

A · 15 Nov

Belgium

3/5

Türkiye

A · 5 Oct

Italy

4/5

H · 12 Nov

Belgium

3/5

A · 15 Nov

France

5/5

Italy vs Türkiye Prediction & Tips

Italy host Türkiye in World UEFA Nations League at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. In the table, Italy sit 2nd on 7 points and Türkiye are 4th on 0.

Form: Italy have taken 3W 1D 1L from their last 5, Türkiye 1W 0D 4L from theirs. Over their last 10 matches Italy average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded; Türkiye average 1.2 and 1.4.

In their last 4 meetings Italy have won 3, Türkiye 0 and 1 were drawn, averaging 3.3 goals a game with both teams scoring in 50%.

The feed's model puts Italy at 50%, the draw at 50% and Türkiye at 0%. Its own advice: Double chance : Italy or draw.

Our call for this match is Home Win at 1.42. Italy rate 80% on combined form and matchup strength.

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Italy vs Türkiye FAQs

When is the match between Italy and Türkiye?

Italy v Türkiye is scheduled on Mon, 5 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Which league is this match in?

World UEFA Nations League, League A - 4.

What is their ranking in the league table this season?

Italy are 2nd in the table, while Türkiye are 4th.

What is the prediction for Italy vs Türkiye?

Our prediction is Home Win at odds of 1.42.

Who is most likely to win Italy vs Türkiye?

Italy and The draw are level at the top: Italy 50%, draw 50%, Türkiye 0%.

Will both teams score in Italy vs Türkiye?

Both teams scored in 40% of Italy's last 10 matches and 30% of Türkiye's last 10.

How accurate is the prediction for this match?

The prediction is based on statistical analysis and the football data available for both teams. Every pick is marked won or lost after full time, so the record can be checked.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions are refreshed as new results, line-ups and odds become available, and finished matches are graded automatically.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Football betting involves real financial risk and no prediction is a guaranteed outcome. Predictions are informational and entertainment content — bet within your means.

Match Preview

Italy vs Türkiye Prediction & Match Preview

League:: World : UEFA Nations League
Date:: Mon, 5 Oct 2026
Venue:: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna

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