Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Brazil · Serie A · Regular Season - 29 · Thu, 8 Oct 2026

Serie A

Atletico Paranaense

23:00

8 Oct

Atletico-MG

PredictionOddsConfidence

Under 3.5 Goals1.2895%

The market expects fewer than four goals at 1.28.

Atletico Paranaense: Matches Played 10

WDLDW

W4 Wins

in last 10 games

L2 Losses

in last 10 games

D4 Draws

in last 10 games

Atletico-MG: Matches Played 10

LWWDW

W5 Wins

in last 10 games

L2 Losses

in last 10 games

D3 Draws

in last 10 games

HomeDrawAway

10%

2.10

45%

3.40

45%

3.50

Teams Head to Head Matches

H2H

5 April 2026 • Serie A
LAtletico-MG2 1Atletico Paranaense
8 December 2024 • Serie A
LAtletico-MG1 0Atletico Paranaense
16 November 2024 • Serie A
WAtletico Paranaense1 0Atletico-MG
2 September 2023 • Serie A
DAtletico Paranaense1 1Atletico-MG
23 May 2023 • CONMEBOL Libertadores
LAtletico-MG2 1Atletico Paranaense
30 April 2023 • Serie A
LAtletico-MG2 1Atletico Paranaense
19 April 2023 • CONMEBOL Libertadores
WAtletico Paranaense2 1Atletico-MG
7 August 2022 • Serie A
WAtletico-MG2 3Atletico Paranaense

Last Matches (Atletico Paranaense)

20 September 2026 • Serie A
WAtletico Paranaense2 1Bahia
12 September 2026 • Serie A
DCoritiba3 3Atletico Paranaense
6 September 2026 • Serie A
LCruzeiro3 1Atletico Paranaense
30 August 2026 • Serie A
DAtletico Paranaense3 3Fluminense
24 August 2026 • Serie A
WBotafogo2 3Atletico Paranaense
15 August 2026 • Serie A
DAtletico Paranaense1 1RB Bragantino
9 August 2026 • Serie A
WSantos0 2Atletico Paranaense
6 August 2026 • Copa Do Brasil
LVitoria4 0Atletico Paranaense
4 August 2026 • Copa Do Brasil
WAtletico Paranaense2 0Vitoria
30 July 2026 • Serie A
DCorinthians0 0Atletico Paranaense

Last Matches (Atletico-MG)

3 October 2026 • Serie A
WAtletico-MG1 0RB Bragantino
19 September 2026 • Serie A
DAtletico-MG1 1Chapecoense-sc
16 September 2026 • CONMEBOL Sudamericana
WAtletico-MG4 2Santos
12 September 2026 • Serie A
WAtletico-MG3 1Fluminense
9 September 2026 • CONMEBOL Sudamericana
LSantos2 0Atletico-MG
5 September 2026 • Serie A
LSao Paulo2 0Atletico-MG
2 September 2026 • Copa Do Brasil
WAtletico-MG2 1Cruzeiro
29 August 2026 • Serie A
WAtletico-MG2 1Vitoria
26 August 2026 • Copa Do Brasil
DCruzeiro1 1Atletico-MG
22 August 2026 • Serie A
DInternacional0 0Atletico-MG

League Table

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	G	GD	P	Form
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55-23	32	60	WWWWW
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47-21	26	57	DWDDW
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43-32	11	49	WDLDW
4	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44-40	4	48	WWLWL
5	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44-36	8	48	WLWDW
6	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43-35	8	46	LWWWW
7	Atletico-MG	28	12	7	9	37-32	5	43	WDWLW
8	Santos	28	11	8	9	43-41	2	41	WWWWW
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37-43	-6	38	LDLWW
10	RB Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34-33	1	37	DLLDL
11	Sao Paulo	29	10	6	13	33-34	-1	36	LLWLW
12	Vitoria	29	10	6	13	32-42	-10	36	WLDWL
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42-47	-5	35	LLWDD
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	9	7	12	36-42	-6	34	WWWLW
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34-43	-9	33	DWDWL
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30-34	-4	32	LLLLL
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32-37	-5	31	WLWLL
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31-39	-8	30	DDLLL
19	Remo	29	5	9	15	33-48	-15	24	DLLLL
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	3	9	16	29-57	-28	18	LDLWL

Top Scorers Table

Player NamesMatchesGoals

K. ViverosAtletico Paranaense2618

PedroFlamengo2816

Gabriel BarbosaSantos2013

Carlos ViníciusGremio2710

Samuel LinoFlamengo279

Matheus PereiraCruzeiro259

Danilo SantosBotafogo219

ReneVitoria219

John KennedyFluminense189

LucianoSao Paulo239

Betting Markets & Predictions

Model expected goals: 2.5

Over / UnderBTTSDouble ChanceCorrect ScoreHT / FTAsian HandicapCornersCardsAnytime Scorer

LineOverUnder

0.5 goals91.8%8.2%

1.5 goals71.3%28.7%

2.5 goals45.6%54.4%

3.5 goals24.2%75.8%

Model estimate from each team's season scoring and conceding rates.

Yes

50.8%

49.2%

65.9%

73%

61.1%

1-1

12.8%

1-0

10.7%

0-1

9.9%

2-1

8.3%

0-0

8.2%

1-2

7.7%

2-0

6.9%

0-2

5.9%

1 / 1

22.7%

1 / X

5.1%

1 / 2

1.9%

X / 1

14.1%

X / X

16.9%

X / 2

12.6%

2 / 1

2.1%

2 / X

5.1%

2 / 2

19.6%

Home -0.75

39%

odds 2.42

Away +0.75

61%

odds 1.52

Home -0.5

45%

odds 2.08

Away +0.5

55%

odds 1.72

Home -0.25

53%

odds 1.80

Away +0.25

47%

odds 2.05

Implied from bookmaker odds, margin removed.

Over 10

53%

odds 1.80

Under 10

47%

odds 2.00

Over 10.5

46%

odds 2.00

Under 10.5

54%

odds 1.73

Total corners over/under.

Over 5.5

42%

odds 2.20

Under 5.5

58%

odds 1.62

Total cards over/under.

Kevin Viveros2.0549%
Jorge Rivaldo2.5040%
Renan Peixoto3.0033%
Leozinho Silva3.0033%
Kerwin Vargas3.4029%

Implied chance of scoring at any point, from the odds.

Model Comparison

Predicted winner: Draw

Our pick: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.28

Expected goals: 2.5

Source: Our published prediction

Recent form44% / 56%

Attack63% / 37%

Defence29% / 71%

Goals model68% / 32%

Head-to-head29% / 71%

Overall46% / 55%

Recent Goal Lines

Hit-rate over each team's last 6 matches.

Over 1.5

Atletico Paranaense6/6

Atletico-MG5/6

Over 2.5

Atletico Paranaense5/6

Atletico-MG2/6

Over 3.5

Atletico Paranaense4/6

Atletico-MG2/6

BTTS (Yes)

Atletico Paranaense6/6

Atletico-MG3/6

Goals By Time Period

ScoredConceded

Atletico Paranaense

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Atletico-MG

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Atletico Paranaense

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Atletico-MG

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Average Event Minute

Atletico Paranaense

First goal scored: 33′First goal conceded: 49′First card: 52′

Atletico-MG

First goal scored: 37′First goal conceded: 61′First card: 64′

Season Statistics

	Atletico Paranaense	Atletico-MG
Form	DWDLDW	DWLWDW
Played	28	28
Wins	14	12
Draws	7	7
Losses	7	9
Goals for (avg)	1.5	1.3
Goals against (avg)	1.1	1.1
Clean sheets	8	7
Failed to score	6	9
Biggest win streak	4	2

Shots & Passes

Per-game averages over the last 6 matches.

Atletico Paranaense

Total shots14.3

Blocked3

43% off target57% on target

69% inside box31% outside box

Total passes393.8

Accurate passes325.7 (83%)

Possession45%

Atletico-MG

Total shots12.3

Blocked2.7

50% off target50% on target

62% inside box38% outside box

Total passes506.2

Accurate passes430.8 (85%)

Possession52%

Trends

7 match streak · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense have scored in each of their last 7 matches in Serie A.

6 match streak · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense have conceded in each of their last 6 matches in Serie A.

6 match streak · Serie A

Both teams have scored in each of Atletico Paranaense's last 6 matches in Serie A.

5 match streak · Serie A

Over 2.5 goals have been scored in each of Atletico Paranaense's last 5 matches in Serie A.

Upcoming Fixtures Difficulty

Atletico Paranaense

H · 8 Oct

Atletico-MG

4/5

A · 12 Oct

Chapecoense-sc

1/5

H · 17 Oct

Palmeiras

5/5

A · 24 Oct

Vitoria

3/5

A · 30 Oct

Gremio

1/5

H · 4 Nov

Vasco DA Gama

2/5

A · 18 Nov

Flamengo

5/5

H · 22 Nov

Remo

1/5

Atletico-MG

A · 8 Oct

Atletico Paranaense

5/5

H · 11 Oct

Santos

4/5

H · 14 Oct

Atletico Torque

Unrated

H · 17 Oct

Coritiba

3/5

A · 21 Oct

Atletico Torque

Unrated

A · 26 Oct

Flamengo

5/5

H · 29 Oct

Cruzeiro

5/5

A · 1 Nov

Gremio

Unrated

Team News

Injuries and suspensions

F. Aguirre (Atletico Paranaense): Yellow Cards
G. Benavidez (Atletico Paranaense): Muscle Injury
Claudinho (Atletico Paranaense): Muscle Injury
Everson (Atletico-MG): Foot Injury
Gustavo Scarpa (Atletico-MG): Inactive
Ruan Tressoldi (Atletico-MG): Muscle Injury
M. Cassierra (Atletico-MG): Injury
Reinier (Atletico-MG): Injury
Vitor Hugo (Atletico-MG): Injury
F. Aguirre (Atletico Paranaense): Yellow Cards
G. Benavidez (Atletico Paranaense): Muscle Injury
Claudinho (Atletico Paranaense): Muscle Injury

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Tips

Atletico Paranaense host Atletico-MG in Brazil Serie A at Arena da Baixada. In the table, Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd on 49 points and Atletico-MG are 7th on 43.

Form: Atletico Paranaense have taken 2W 2D 1L from their last 5, Atletico-MG 3W 1D 1L from theirs. Over their last 10 matches Atletico Paranaense average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded; Atletico-MG average 1.4 and 1.1.

In their last 8 meetings Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Atletico-MG 4 and 1 were drawn, averaging 2.6 goals a game with both teams scoring in 75%.

The feed's model puts Atletico Paranaense at 10%, the draw at 45% and Atletico-MG at 45%. Its own advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico-MG.

Our call for this match is Under 3.5 Goals at 1.28. The market expects fewer than four goals at 1.28.

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Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG FAQs

When is the match between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG?

Atletico Paranaense v Atletico-MG is scheduled on Thu, 8 October 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

Which league is this match in?

Brazil Serie A, Regular Season - 29.

What is their ranking in the league table this season?

Atletico Paranaense are 3rd in the table, while Atletico-MG are 7th.

What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?

Our prediction is Under 3.5 Goals at odds of 1.28.

Who is most likely to win Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?

The draw and Atletico-MG are level at the top: Atletico Paranaense 10%, draw 45%, Atletico-MG 45%.

Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?

Both teams scored in 60% of Atletico Paranaense's last 10 matches and 60% of Atletico-MG's last 10.

How accurate is the prediction for this match?

The prediction is based on statistical analysis and the football data available for both teams. Every pick is marked won or lost after full time, so the record can be checked.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions are refreshed as new results, line-ups and odds become available, and finished matches are graded automatically.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Football betting involves real financial risk and no prediction is a guaranteed outcome. Predictions are informational and entertainment content — bet within your means.

Match Preview

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Match Preview

League:: Brazil : Serie A
Date:: Thu, 8 Oct 2026
Venue:: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba

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